Advanced warfare stat transfer
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Those two areas of predicted revolutionary advance were computer hardware and computer software.Īs discussed further in my concurrent paper “A Retrospective on the So-Called Revolution in Military Affairs, 2000-2020,” I have subsequently concluded that I was right about computers but should have added robotics to the list of technologies likely to experience radical change (my earlier estimate, in 2000, forecast a “high” pace of change for robotics such as unmanned aerial vehicles, rather than radical or revolutionary progress). With this research complete, I then argued in the book that in fact only two of the 29 categories of technology were likely to experience truly revolutionary change-and thus to create the potential for military revolution when combined with other kinds of available technologies as well as new operational and strategic concepts. Finally, armed with my own initial estimates of key trends in those 29 areas, I then consulted with experts, including at several of the nation’s major weapons laboratories, for their feedback and advice. I also examined the scientific, engineering, and defense literature on various types of technological research, to understand what was likely to be developed over the 2000-2020 time period. My methodology began with a focus on the foundational concepts of physics, to understand the limits of the possible. Revolutionary change is defined, notionally, as a type and pace of progress that renders obsolete old weapons, tactics, and operational approaches while making new ones possible. My goal was to attempt to determine in which areas the pace of change was likely to be revolutionary over the following 20 years, versus high or moderate. The core of that book was an analysis of ongoing and likely future developments in 29 different types of military-related technologies.
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This paper’s category-by-category examination of military technology employs the same basic framework that I developed in my book published in 2000, Technological Change and the Future of Warfare. This approach is not foolproof, as discussed in my forthcoming book, but if undertaken with the proper degree of acknowledged uncertainty, can still be quite useful.
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Since many defense systems take a couple of decades to develop, it should not be an overly daunting task to gauge how the world might look, in terms of deployable military technology, 20 years from now. Yet it is also short enough that existing trends in laboratory research can help us understand the future without indulging in rampant speculation. My working hypothesis is that 20 years is long enough to represent a true extrapolation into the future. Presumably, those areas where things are changing fastest may warrant the most investment, as well as the most creative thinking about how to modify tactics and operational plans to exploit new opportunities (and mitigate new vulnerabilities that adversaries may develop as a result of these same likely advances). Building on the methodology employed in my earlier 2000 book, Technological Change and the Future of Warfare, and refined further in my recent paper, “A Retrospective on the So-Called Revolution in Military Affairs, 2000-2020,” this paper attempts to look two decades into the future to aid in this important task for American defense planners. Defense resource decisions need to be based on concrete analysis that breaks down the categories of major military technological invention and innovation one by one and examines each. But it is not enough to wave one’s arms exuberantly about futuristic military possibilities. To be sure, technology is advancing fast in many realms. and allied weaponry, military operations, wartime preparations, and defense budget priorities. More importantly, answering it is crucial for making appropriate changes in U.S. What changes are likely in military technology over the next 20 years? This question is fascinating on its own terms.